Tillamook turns supply-chain planning into a growth engine

Tillamook County Creamery Association transformed supply-chain planning from a forecasting support function into a capability supporting national growth. Working with Logility, the dairy cooperative improved visibility and coordination across demand, production and inventory planning.

The reported results are substantial: forecast accuracy reached 85%, finished-goods inventory was reduced by 75%, spoilage losses fell by $4.2 million and fill rates remained at 99% while the business expanded nationally.

The case is particularly relevant for food and beverage companies. Perishable products create a direct relationship between forecast quality, production decisions, shelf life, inventory exposure and customer service. Excess inventory does not only increase working capital; it can become unrecoverable waste.

Operational perspective: the main lesson is not simply that better forecasting reduces stock. Tillamook connected planning performance to growth, service and waste reduction. This requires common demand assumptions, product and location hierarchies, shelf-life data, production constraints and clearly owned inventory policies.

Organizations applying the same model should distinguish between improvements generated by statistical forecasting, process discipline, planner collaboration and inventory-policy changes. Forecast accuracy alone should not be treated as proof of value unless it changes production, deployment or replenishment decisions.

A governed implementation should define who owns the consensus forecast, who approves overrides, how promotional and customer signals enter the plan, how spoilage and service trade-offs are evaluated, and how planning recommendations are reconciled with ERP and execution data.