Forecast variability: when human enrichment destabilizes planning

Nicolas Vandeput examines changes between consecutive forecasts and reports that, in two client examples, human enrichment approximately doubled the variability of the statistical baseline.

Stability should not replace accuracy, but excessive forecast movement can disrupt purchasing, inventory and production. The owner of the consensus process should distinguish useful new information from repeated numerical intervention and track forecast variability together with error, bias and Forecast Value Add.