Outgrowing the classical safety-stock formula

Nicolas Vandeput challenges the conventional safety-stock formula because it often substitutes demand variability for actual forecast error and relies on simplifying independence assumptions. He presents four levels of maturity for improving the calculation.

Safety-stock logic should use validated forecast errors over the relevant risk horizon, explicit service policies and supplier uncertainty. Replacing standard ERP or APS logic requires simulation, controlled comparison, business ownership and a safe fallback before production deployment.